Articles by Estefano Gomez
President Zelensky marked the 40th anniversary of Chornobyl by urging an end to “Russian nuclear terrorism.” The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026, market now sits at 0.5%
YES, down fro...
Secret Service agents evacuated Donald Trump and cabinet members after a gunman opened fire at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, pushing odds on the Next to Leave Trump Cabinet market up by an...
Over 600 commercial ships remain stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the odds of traffic normalization by May 15 down to 13.5%
YES, from 20% yesterday.
Market reaction
The stranded ships ar�...
Iranian lawmaker Mahmoud Nabavian has dismissed demands for a role in managing the Strait of Hormuz and a 20-year halt to uranium enrichment. The Iran uranium enrichment agreement market has dropped �...
A potential liquidation of $2.25 billion in crypto short positions looms if Bitcoin reaches $80,000, and the Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April market has seen odds decrease as this upward pressure buil�...
Israel’s haredi draft crisis is escalating and threatening Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition. The Polymarket contract on Netanyahu stepping down by June 30 trades at 5.5%
YES, a slight decrea...
Bitcoin futures saw over $600M in long liquidations, a level not reached since the February 6 “Black Sunday II” market turmoil. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 by April 30 s...
Israel struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, putting pressure on a fragile ceasefire. The ceasefire with Hezbollah by April 30 market sits at 100%
YES.
The ceasefire technically holds, but�...
The Iran conflict is moving energy-related prediction markets, with crude oil all-time high by April 30 sitting at 1.6%
YES, down from 2% a day ago.
Market reaction
The April 30 crude oil market �...
The Kelp DAO exploit drained $292 million, leaving Aave with $196 million in bad debt. Ethereum reaching $10,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 4%
YES, unchanged this week.
Market reaction
The exp�...
