Articles by Estefano Gomez
The Pentagon is adapting tactics used against Caribbean drug traffickers to target Iranβs fast-attack fleet. Kharg Island control by April 30 sits at 2.9%
YES, down from 4% yesterday.
The April 3...
Trumpβs ambiguous comments on US-Iran talks have rattled Bitcoin markets, with the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April priced at 100%
YES.
Traders are reacting to Trumpβs βprob...
The US-Gulf security-for-finance arrangement faces new tensions as the Iran war escalates. The probability of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sits at 2.1%
YES, reflecting tradersβ skeptic...
Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 38%
YES on Polymarket, up from 34% a week ago, as major banks push further into Bitcoin ETF products.
Market reaction
Morgan Stanley launchοΏ½...
At least eight vessels have crossed the US naval blockade line in recent days, heading toward Iranian ports or preparing to load Iranian cargo. The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to norοΏ½...
A senior Israeli official says the US plans to take a more active role in disarming Hezbollah in Lebanon. The market for an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 100%
YES.
Both theοΏ½...
Israel confirmed a self-defense carve-out under the Lebanon ceasefire. The Ceasefire by April 30 market is at 94%
YES, up from 45% a week ago.
The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market isοΏ½...
Trumpβs three-word jab at Eric Swalwell connects to serious allegations around the former congressman. The Eric Swalwell market on Polymarket sits at 100% YES for his departure by May 31, with 45 da...
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to use all economic tools against those backing Iranβs βterrorist activities,β following discussions with Britainβs finance minister. The ma...
CENTCOMβs announcement that the US naval blockade focuses on Iranian ports rather than the Strait of Hormuz has shifted market expectations. The odds for Trump lifting the Strait blockade by May 31 ...
