Articles by Estefano Gomez
An analyst claims Bitcoin dropping to $40,000 would be a βnear-unprecedentedβ event. On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 by April 30 sits at 15% YES, with traders pricing ...
Apple confirmed John Ternus as its next CEO, and the Next CEO of Apple market has effectively resolved at 100% YES for Ternus becoming CEO by December 31.
Ternusβs confirmation previously drove a 3...
Al-Iraqchi, Iranβs lead diplomat, is set to return to Islamabad, potentially reigniting indirect US-Iran ceasefire talks. The market for the UK striking Iran by April 30 sits at 0.9%
YES, down fro...
Israeli airstrikes struck southern Lebanon, raising questions about the 2026 ceasefire. The Trump endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire market sits at 100Β’
YES, with no recent trades.
Market reactio...
An Israeli raid on Safad Al-Batikh in southern Lebanon, reported by @FirstSquawk, raises questions about the durability of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. The market for a ceasefire by June 30 sits aοΏ½...
USS Rafael Peralta confronted an Iranian-flagged vessel as part of the U.S. naval blockade, and the market for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30 sits at 15%
YES, with traders οΏ½...
Iranian fighter jets allegedly struck U.S. bases in Kuwait, causing extensive damage. The Iran military action by April 30 market now sits at 100%
YES.
Market reaction
Every sub-market within theοΏ½...
Trump canceled the Whitakoff and Kushner visit to Pakistan, originally planned for ceasefire discussions with Iranian representatives. The odds of a US-Iran peace deal by April 30 dropped to 4.5%
YοΏ½...
The US dollarβs share of international payments via SWIFT rose 1.9 points to 51.1% in March, coinciding with escalating US-Iran tensions. The Bank of Japanβs April decision market prices a rate cu...
Oil investors are exiting positions at the fastest pace in 17 years, with April seeing $900 million in outflows. The WTI Crude Oil $160 in April market reflects bearish sentiment ahead of its April 3οΏ½...
