Articles by Estefano Gomez
CENTCOMβs legal definitions have left a loophole in the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, allowing non-oil cargo ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz unimpeded. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to ...
President Trump publicly rebuked Italyβs Giorgia Meloni for refusing to support US military actions in Iran and Lebanon, and the Polymarket contract on US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 sits at 1....
Anthropic, Google, and GitHubβs AI coding agents were compromised through prompt injection attacks. The βtop AI model by June 2026β market for Google holds at 16.5%
YES, down from 18% yesterda...
Deutsche Bank raised its forecast for Chinaβs 2026 GDP growth to 4.9%, while TSMC warned that higher gas prices from Middle East tensions could hit profits. The ECB interest rate market for a 50+ bp...
Iran faces major reconstruction costs after the Twelve-Day War, pushing leaders toward negotiations on sanctions relief. The market for Trump agreeing to oil sanction relief in April sits at 36.5%
οΏ½...
Trumpβs ultimatum to the Fed chair injects uncertainty as Bitcoin hovers at $75,000. Bitcoin above $58,000 by April 14 is at 100%
YES.
The market for Bitcoin staying above $58,000 is priced at 10...
Russiaβs latest air assault on Kyiv and Odesa killed 17 people, pushing ceasefire odds lower. The ceasefire by May 31, 2026 market now sits at 5%
YES, down from 6% yesterday.
Market reaction
The...
Field Marshal Asim Munirβs visit to Tehran to facilitate new US-Iran talks has the possibility of a ceasefire by April 21 priced at 10.5%
YES.
The April 21 ceasefire market sits at 10.5%
YES, w...
Ukraine secured fresh aid pledges for drones, air defense, and logistics at the Ramstein summit. The ceasefire by April 30, 2026, market is at 1.8%
YES, down from 2% a week ago.
Market reaction
NοΏ½...
Israelβs military operations in southern Lebanon are intensifying the 2026 Lebanon war, with the Polymarket contract on military action in Greater Beirut by April 1 priced at 100%
YES.
Market rea...
