Articles by Estefano Gomez
Trumpβs cancellation of his envoysβ trip to Iran and Tehranβs refusal to negotiate under threat have frozen diplomatic progress. The market for a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 has col...
Tehran-Washington talks have stalled, casting doubt on Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30. The odds for this market have dropped to 1.8%
YES, down from 50% a week ago.
Market reaction
TheοΏ½...
US crude exports have reached a record 5.2 million barrels per day during the ongoing Iran conflict. The US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 market sits at 2.6%
YES, down from 7% yesterday, while the οΏ½...
Lebanonβs PM Nawaf Salam criticized security forces for focusing on minor issues instead of Hezbollah disarmament. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026 market sits at 100%
YES, unchange...
The Sultan of Oman met with Iranβs Foreign Minister to discuss regional developments and mediation efforts. The odds of Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30 sit at 1.9%
YES...
President Zelensky marked the 40th anniversary of Chornobyl by urging an end to βRussian nuclear terrorism.β The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026, market now sits at 0.5%
YES, down fro...
Secret Service agents evacuated Donald Trump and cabinet members after a gunman opened fire at the White House Correspondentsβ Dinner, pushing odds on the Next to Leave Trump Cabinet market up by an...
Over 600 commercial ships remain stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the odds of traffic normalization by May 15 down to 13.5%
YES, from 20% yesterday.
Market reaction
The stranded ships arοΏ½...
Iranian lawmaker Mahmoud Nabavian has dismissed demands for a role in managing the Strait of Hormuz and a 20-year halt to uranium enrichment. The Iran uranium enrichment agreement market has dropped οΏ½...
A potential liquidation of $2.25 billion in crypto short positions looms if Bitcoin reaches $80,000, and the Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April market has seen odds decrease as this upward pressure builοΏ½...
