Articles by Estefano Gomez
Trump is weighing punitive actions against NATO allies who refused U.S. support in the Iran conflict. The probability of a U.S. withdrawal from NATO by April 30 sits at 0.5%
YES.
The potential penοΏ½...
Trumpβs move to reclassify medical marijuana to Schedule III has shifted prediction markets. The likelihood of marijuana being rescheduled by December 31 is now at 42.8%
, down from 62% yesterday.
...
Persian Gulf nations are producing 14.5 million barrels per day below pre-war levels after a Strait of Hormuz closure triggered by a US-Israel attack, and crude oil prediction markets are adjusting tοΏ½...
A strong El NiΓ±o forecast is compounding supply concerns in crude oil markets already disrupted by the Iran conflict, with a Polymarket contract tracking whether Crude Oil (CL) will hit $90 by June 3...
Trump faces a May 1 deadline to justify ongoing military operations against Iran under the War Powers Resolution. The likelihood of the U.S. declaring war on Iran by December 31, 2026, sits at 7%
YοΏ½...
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $2 billion in inflows over the past eight days. The market for Bitcoin reaching an all-time high by June 30 is at 3%
YES.
The capital flowing into Bitcoin ETFs hasοΏ½...
Chinaβs fiscal expenditures increased 2.6% year-on-year in Q1 2026, while government land sales income fell 24.4% as the real estate downturn continued. The market for Chinaβs 2026 annual GDP grow...
Lebanon and Israel have extended their ceasefire for another three weeks following discussions at the White House. The market for Trump endorsing an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30 sits at 1οΏ½...
French President Emmanuel Macron is rallying Europe to aid Lebanon and has announced an upcoming conference involving regional countries. The market for an Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by ApriοΏ½...
Kuwait International Airport plans to resume operations on April 26, a sign of localized de-escalation in the Gulf region. The market for Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30 sits at 5οΏ½...
