Articles by Estefano Gomez
Iranian officials have been evacuated from Pakistan under military escort, according to two Pakistani government sources. The βIran coup attempt by June 30β market currently sits at 12.5%
YES.
...
John Boltonβs public skepticism about US-Iran peace talks has pushed the odds of a permanent peace deal by April 30 down to 5.5%
YES, a drop from 10% just 24 hours ago.
The diplomatic meetings wi...
The Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warshβs nomination to lead the Federal Reserve after U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro closed a criminal investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. War...
The EU announced its 20th sanctions package against Russia, targeting energy and financial sectors. The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026 market now trades at 5.2%
YES, up from 4% yesterday.οΏ½...
Iranβs delegation has left Islamabad after all-day talks, presenting a list of demands to Pakistani mediators. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire extension sit at 45%
YES, up from 30% a week ago.
T...
U.S. oil exports are increasing during the ongoing U.S.-Israel war with Iran, shifting global supply patterns. The market for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at 0% YES, reflecting expected pοΏ½...
Sirens sounded in Israelβs Western Galilee after a drone infiltration was detected, the latest in ongoing hostilities with Hezbollah. The market for an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 sits at ...
Ethereumβs SuperTrend indicator has signaled buy for the first time since May last year, while Ethereum price predictions for April 20-26 sit at 0% YES.
The SuperTrend flip suggests the end of a lo...
Iranβs Foreign Minister Araghchiβs talks with Pakistani officials ended without progress. The probability of a US-Iran meeting by April 26 dropped to 10%
YES.
Market reaction
Odds for a diplom...
OpenAIβs GPT-5.5 Pro is now available on Venice, pushing βGPT-5.5 released by April 30β to 100%
YES.
The April 23 market also hit 100%
YES, up from 93% just a day ago. Odds had climbed stea...
