Articles by Estefano Gomez
Iranβs rial fell to a record low as the US naval blockade squeezes its economy. The likelihood of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 trades at 8%
YES.
The blockade, initiated in mid-April, has...
Teslaβs Q1 earnings exceeded expectations, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 against $0.36 expected and revenues of $22.387 billion, but the Polymarket contract on NVIDIA being the largest company by marke...
An IDF drone killed a Hezbollah member in southern Lebanon, and the odds of Israel withdrawing from Lebanon by April 30 are at 0.3%
YES on Polymarket.
The strike, combined with overnight attacks oοΏ½...
The Series A extension was led by ParaFi and Reciprocal Ventures, with Coinbase Ventures and more than 20 customer founders joining the round. Blockworks closed a Series A extension at a $192 millionοΏ½...
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid have formed the BeYachad alliance to oppose Prime Minister Netanyahu, with the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market sitting at roughly 15%
YES odds. The alliaοΏ½...
Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz only after the war concludes and with guarantees against resumption. The US-Iran ceasefire market for April 30 is at 2.9%
YES, down from 18% a week οΏ½...
Ukraineβs drone strikes into Russian territory have surpassed expectations with deep incursions and significant damage. The ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 0.2%
YES.
Market reaction
The Apr...
Middle Eastern energy disruptions are pushing WTI crude oil price expectations higher, with the WTI crude oil for April 2026 market pricing in a potential spike to $160 as geopolitical tensions squeeοΏ½...
Iranβs internet shutdown has reached 60 days, compounding economic and social disruption. The market for the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sits at 7.5%
YES, slightly down from 8% a day ago.
T...
A civilian contractor associated with the Israeli Defense Ministry was killed in southern Lebanon, an event with potential implications for Polymarketβs ceasefire-related contracts. The Israel x Hez...
