Articles by Estefano Gomez
CENTCOM confirmed the U.S. Navyβs blockade has forced 38 ships to turn around from Iranian ports. The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 sits at 14.5%
, d...
Hezbollah says it launched a drone and missile attack on Israeli troops and a tank. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market sits at 100%
YES, though the attack raises obvious questions aοΏ½...
Trumpβs criticism of Norah OβDonnell on β60 Minutesβ has the βWill Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by April 30β market sitting at 100%
YES.
The April 30 market was already a...
Japanβs PM Takaichi confirmed oil supply security through 2027 despite Middle East disruptions. The market for a Bank of Japan rate decrease in April sits at 0.1% YES, unchanged from last week.
Tak...
The $24 billion Iraq trade corridor proposal has emerged alongside continued Strait of Hormuz disruption, with the Hormuz traffic normalization by April 30 market sitting at 0% YES and six days remaiοΏ½...
Bitcoin has hit $79,000, and the Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 by April 30 now reflects strong bullish sentiment, with traders pricing in a much lower probability of that declineοΏ½...
A lone-actor assassination attempt targeting President Trump and his administration at the White House Correspondentsβ Dinner has pushed traders to reassess Cabinet stability. The market for βnext...
Iran has proposed a new plan to prioritize reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending its naval blockade. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 is at 16%
YES, up from 15.5% earlier.οΏ½...
Keir Starmer has publicly committed to leading Labour into the next general election, and the market on whether he leaves office by June 30, 2026, now sits at 42.5%
YES, up from 41% twenty-four houοΏ½...
The odds for an Iranian regime fall by June 30 sit at 8.5%
, slightly up from 8% yesterday, as Washington and Tehran try to hold together a fragile ceasefire backed by Chinese diplomatic involvementοΏ½...
