Articles by Estefano Gomez
At least nine oil tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz this week, suggesting gaps in the US naval blockade. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by April 30 market sits at 15% YES.
The trans�...
Iran secretly used a Chinese spy satellite to target US military bases in the Middle East. The odds of a US-Iran peace deal by April 22 sit at 20%
YES.
The peace deal market rose from 12% a week a�...
A Chinese oil tanker, Rich Starry, was forced to retreat from the Strait of Hormuz due to a US blockade. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 sits at 10%
YES, up from 8% a day a�...
The US has initiated a multi-layered naval blockade on Iranian ports using F-35s, destroyers, and satellite surveillance, according to Al Arabiya. The probability of the US lifting the blockade by Ma�...
The International Monetary Fund has warned of a potential global recession due to high oil prices, exacerbated by the ongoing Iran conflict. The ECB 50 bps rate cut market sits at 0.1%
YES, while t�...
Pakistan is pushing for new US-Iran peace negotiations. The ceasefire-by-April-21 market is at 10.5%
YES, unchanged despite the diplomatic initiative.
The April 22 peace deal market sits at 20.5% �...
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Trump tariffs might be reinstated by July following a Supreme Court setback, pushing the odds of Trump visiting China by May 31 to 81.5%
YES on Polym�...
Peru’s JEE will review over 4,000 observed tally sheets, potentially altering the runoff outcome. On Polymarket, Rafael López Aliaga’s odds of winning the presidency sit at 16.5%
YES, with the ...
Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari has introduced Articles of Impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, citing violations of his oath and war crimes in the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. The od�...
Bitcoin price above $60,000 by April 19 sits at 99.6%
YES on Polymarket, as a two-week ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict and falling oil prices keep risk appetite high.
Market reaction
Liquidity �...
