Articles by Estefano Gomez
Trumpβs blockade of Iranian ports continues despite the straitβs reopening, and the market for a US blockade lift by May 31 sits at 86%
YES amid conflicting announcements about the waterwayβs ...
Rumen Radevβs Progressive Bulgaria party is leading polls before Bulgariaβs April 19 election, with the Polymarket contract on Radev becoming the next prime minister at 96.4%
YES, up from 74% a ...
Reports of increased repression and economic deterioration in Iran continue after the ceasefire. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by May 31 are at 4%
YES, up slightly from 3.9% a week ago.
MοΏ½...
Iran opened its airspace and several airports on Saturday, following a ceasefire agreement with the US that began April 7. The market for Iran striking Israel by April 30 currently sits at 100.0% YESοΏ½...
Hezbollahβs recent street displays of force in Lebanon are raising concerns about the ceasefire with Israel. The odds for an Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 are at 94%
YES, a significant ...
Ukraine asserts increased leverage in peace talks and aims for EU membership advancement following Hungaryβs election. The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026, market sits at 5.9%
YES, while ...
Trump stated he trusts Iran and announced plans for talks in Islamabad. The ceasefire extension by April 21 market now sits at 78%
YES.
Trumpβs statement pushed the ceasefire extension market fro...
Trump announced the Strait of Hormuz is βcompletely open,β with Iran promising it will βnever closeβ again. The odds for the US lifting its blockade by May 31 sit at 90%
YES.
Market reactio...
The IMF has downgraded its global growth forecast due to the Iran war and potential oil price spikes, raising US recession odds for 2026. The probability of a US recession by yearβs end sits at 0%
...
Trump announced that US-Iran talks will continue over the weekend, saying differences are minimal. A permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at 28.5%
YES, up from 12% a week ago.
The negotiations haοΏ½...
