Articles by Estefano Gomez
President Pezeshkian has commended Pakistanβs mediation efforts in the US-Iran conflict. The market for a ceasefire breach announcement by April 21 is at 9.0%
YES, down from 33% a week ago.
Pezes...
Roberto SΓ‘nchez has accused Rafael LΓ³pez Aliaga of avoiding legal scrutiny for inflammatory remarks. LΓ³pez Aliagaβs chances of winning the 2026 Peruvian presidential election sit at 14.5%
YES, ...
Israeli UN envoy Danny Danon warned that Israel would react if threatened, adding friction to already strained Israel-Iran relations. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026, market sits aοΏ½...
Trump dismissed rising inflation reports during comments from Las Vegas, and the prediction market for his upcoming Fox Business interview has shifted, with odds of him mentioning economic terms now οΏ½...
Anthropic has released Claude Opus 4.7, resolving the Polymarket contract on whether the model would ship by May 31, which now sits at 100% YES
, up from 38% a week ago.
The confirmed release movedοΏ½...
President Trumpβs falling out with Italyβs Giorgia Meloni is adding strain to US-Europe relations, and the Polymarket contract on US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 has ticked up to 1.2%
YES, u...
The Pentagonβs leadership shakeup continues with the ouster of Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George. The Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30 market sits at 6%
YES.
Market reactio...
A tentative Middle East ceasefire is shaping crude oil market sentiment, with the probability of crude hitting $90 by the end of June declining as traders price in potential de-escalation in the regiοΏ½...
Charles Schwab announced the rollout of Schwab Crypto, a spot trading service for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Bitcoin price on April 16 market shows a 99.9%
probability of Bitcoin staying above $68,0οΏ½...
The Lebanese army has accused Israel of violating a ceasefire with acts of aggression. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026 market is at 93.7%
YES, while the June 30 market sits at 96οΏ½...
