Articles by Estefano Gomez
Peruβs JEE will review over 4,000 observed tally sheets, potentially altering the runoff outcome. On Polymarket, Rafael LΓ³pez Aliagaβs odds of winning the presidency sit at 16.5%
YES, with the ...
Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari has introduced Articles of Impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, citing violations of his oath and war crimes in the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. The odοΏ½...
Bitcoin price above $60,000 by April 19 sits at 99.6%
YES on Polymarket, as a two-week ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict and falling oil prices keep risk appetite high.
Market reaction
Liquidity οΏ½...
The US warning about Chinaβs military activities has coincided with a decline in the likelihood of Trump visiting China. Odds for Trump visiting China by May 31 are at 81.5%
YES, down from 84% yes...
The Senate voted 40-59 against blocking arms sales to Israel while Trump signaled a diplomatic opening with Iran. The market on Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April is at 36.5%
YES, up from 3οΏ½...
Trump announced China agreed not to send weapons to Iran, while Iranβs military warned that continued port blockades violate the ceasefire. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief ...
Oil prices are falling as renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations look more likely, and the Polymarket contract for WTI crude oil hitting $160 in April now carries odds expected to decrease by 15%.
In the WTοΏ½...
Gold prices are up as traders watch for potential U.S.-Iran dialogue. The Polymarket contract for βno diplomatic meeting by June 30β sits at 2%
YES.
Market reaction
The odds for a June 30 meet...
The Pentagon has requested GM and Ford to pivot their production towards military equipment as the U.S.-Iran conflict depletes munition reserves. Military action against Iran ending by April 1, 2026,οΏ½...
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reached all-time highs today as the US-Iran conflict continues. The S&P 500 prediction market for April 15 is at 100% YES
, resolving the question with certainty.
οΏ½...
