Articles by Estefano Gomez
Emirates NBD is pursuing the first Gulf public debt sale since the Iran war began, and the Polymarket contract for Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30 has dropped to 1.9%
YES, down οΏ½...
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid have formed a new political alliance aimed at unseating Netanyahuβs government, with the odds of Netanyahu being out by June 30 at 5.5%
YES.
The alliance, called οΏ½...
Two rejections at the $80K level in a single week, yet massive ETF inflows and a historically bullish April suggest the story isn't over. Bitcoin tried to break $80K twice in the past seven days. BotοΏ½...
The US-Iran conflict has intensified, disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and pushing Brent crude over $100 per barrel, while the Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April trades at 25%οΏ½...
Hezbollah Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem denounced Beirutβs peace talks with Israel in Washington as humiliating, while the group released footage of a drone strike on IDF troops. The Israel-H...
Iranβs Foreign Minister criticized the US in talks with Russiaβs Putin, citing βdestructive habitsβ and βunreasonable demandsβ as barriers to diplomacy. The market for no US-Iran diplomati...
Iranβs Foreign Minister accused the US of obstructing diplomatic efforts, citing βdestructive habitsβ and βunreasonable demands.β The odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 have dropped ...
Iranβs foreign minister told Putin that U.S. tactics are blocking diplomatic progress. The Polymarket contract for no US-Iran meeting by June 30 trades at 16.7%
YES, up from 9% yesterday.
Market ...
Yadollah Javani of the IRGC asserts the US canβt reopen the Strait of Hormuz through military force. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 sits at 17.5%
YES, down from 20% yesterd...
Germanyβs Friedrich Merz accused Iran of humiliating the US as diplomatic talks stall. The Polymarket contract for no US-Iran meeting by June 30 is at 16.7%
YES, up from 9% yesterday.
The market ...
