Articles by Estefano Gomez
Iranian air defenses engaged hostile targets over Tehran amid ongoing conflict. The likelihood of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sits at 8.5%
YES, up from 8% yesterday.
The market for IraniοΏ½...
Pakistan is moving to become a Gulf security backbone as the US draws down militarily in West Asia. Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30 sits at 4%
YES, down from 10% yesterday.
GulοΏ½...
The U.S. military has seized another oil tanker linked to Iran, escalating tensions in the region. The likelihood of the U.S. Navy escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 οΏ½...
The US military seized an oil tanker associated with Iran, pushing odds for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by April down to 17%
YES, from 26% a day ago.
Market reaction
Traders droοΏ½...
An Iranian diplomatic source says a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran negotiations is reportedly imminent. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 sit at 10.4%
YES, down from 14% juοΏ½...
US jobless claims and manufacturing data came out on April 23, 2026, while the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt global oil flows. The probability of a Fed rate cut after the June 2026 meetinοΏ½...
Iranian sources claim US-Iran negotiations could see a breakthrough βtonight or tomorrow.β The odds for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 are at 10.4%
YES, down from 14% yester...
The U.S. has depleted critical missile stockpiles in the ongoing conflict with Iran, potentially limiting future military capacity. The odds of a U.S. declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026,οΏ½...
The EU adopted its 20th sanctions package against Russia, targeting energy and military sectors. The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 market now sits at 3.8%
YES, down from 5% a week ago.
The paοΏ½...
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is insisting on a full Israeli withdrawal as a condition for any agreement in the ongoing Israel-Lebanon peace talks. The market on an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meοΏ½...
