Articles by Estefano Gomez
OpenAI has lost two executives, with COO Brad Lightcap shifting to special projects and Fidji Simo taking medical leave. The market for GPT-5.5 release by June 30, 2026, sits at 96.9%
YES, slightlyοΏ½...
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called Canada βsucksβ and threatened to end the trade deal, while the Polymarket contract on whether the S&P 500 opens up or down on April 15 sits at 100.0...
Anthropicβs launch of Claude Design, powered by Claude Opus 4.7, has moved design software markets on Polymarket. The Claude 4.7 release by April 30 market sits at 100% YES
, confirming the release...
Iranβs Foreign Ministry declared that its 60% enriched uranium will not be exported, pushing the odds of the U.S. obtaining Iranian uranium by May 31 down to 26.5%
YES from 20% yesterday.
The US ...
Ukraineβs drone campaign has reportedly damaged Russian oil facilities and prompted a Russian warning to Europe, pushing the probability of crude oil reaching $90 by June 30 to 75%
YES.
Market re...
Trump announced Iranβs agreement to permit US personnel to collect leftover uranium. The market for βIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30β now sits at 44.3%
YES, up from 35% ju...
Iran denied Trumpβs suggestion of a uranium handover to secure peace. The market for Iran surrendering its stockpile by April 30 is at 45%
YES, up from 25% yesterday but likely to face pressure.
...
Stocks reached new highs with Nasdaq up double digits in April. The S&P 500 contract for April 15 sits at 100%
YES, up from 85% just 24 hours ago.
The April 15 S&P 500 market now fully priοΏ½...
BlackRockβs Bitcoin ETF has absorbed over 9,631 BTC in five days during US-Israeli airstrikes and Iranian responses. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by March 31, 202...
Nikita Bier said aggregated data from Xs new trading pilot points to roughly $1 billion in global volume since Tuesday nights rollout. X said its new cashtags pilot has driven an estimated $1 billionοΏ½...
