Articles by Estefano Gomez
Franceβs finance minister is urging the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with the G7 ready to mitigate war-related economic disruptions. The odds of UK warships passing through the Strait by April...
Qatarβs talks with Pakistanβs PM aim to extend the US-Iran ceasefire. The ceasefire-by-April-22 market is at 23.5%
YES, up from 12% a week ago.
Market reaction
The market is responding to Paki...
Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Lauren Boebert have jointly demanded greater accountability for sexual misconduct in Congress following the resignations of Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales. The PolοΏ½...
The IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings struck a pessimistic note on the global economy, with the US recession by end of 2026 market sitting at 0%
YES on Polymarket.
Market reaction
The war involving οΏ½...
An Iranian military official claims missile readiness forced a halt to attacks on Lebanon. The Polymarket contract for Israeli military action in Greater Beirut by April 1 is at 100% YES.
Market reaοΏ½...
The US House rejected a resolution to limit President Trumpβs authority to wage war with Iran. The odds of a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, sit at 7.5%
YES, down slightly from...
US-Iran negotiations broke down in Islamabad, and the Polymarket contract for a permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at 21.5%
YES, up slightly from 12% a week ago.
Market reaction
The April 30 mοΏ½...
Donald Trump criticized Italy after reports surfaced that Rome denied US military aircraft access to a Sicilian airbase linked to the Iran conflict. US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 sits at 1.2%
οΏ½...
A ceasefire has taken effect in Lebanon, though Hezbollahβs disarmament and Israelβs withdrawal remain tied to U.S.-Iran negotiations. The market for a ceasefire by April 30, 2026, is at 94%
YES...
Pakistan announced that no date is set for the next round of US-Iran talks. The ceasefire by April 22 market is at 21.5%
YES.
## Market reaction
The lack of a scheduled second round has introduceοΏ½...
