Articles by Estefano Gomez
Iranβs Speaker Bagher Qalibaf claims the US has run out of oil-related options. The odds of a US-Iran peace deal by April 30 sit at 2%
YES, down from 10% yesterday.
Qalibafβs comments frame Ira...
Home Front Command has issued new security guidelines in northern Israel, signaling rising tensions with Hezbollah. The Polymarket ceasefire-by-June-30 contract sits at 100%
YES, but this escalatioοΏ½...
The head of the Gas Exporting Countriesβ Forum warned that structural gas demand destruction could reshape the global LNG market. The crude oil all-time high by April 30 contract sits at 1.0%
YES,...
OpenAI launched GPT-5.5 in ChatGPT and Codex, and the Polymarket contract for GPT-5.5 by April 30, 2026 now sits at 100%
YES.
Market reaction
The April 30 market reached 100%
YES, up from 98% jοΏ½...
Netanyahu has canceled the mass Meron celebration due to renewed fire from Lebanon, a decision that bears directly on the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market, currently at 100%
YES.
MarοΏ½...
The total value hacked from crypto protocols in April has exceeded $623 million with four days left in the month. The Polymarket contract on whether another $100 million-plus hack occurs by the end oοΏ½...
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed support for dollar swap lines amid the UAEβs potential funding request and said there are no plans to renew Iranian or Russian oil waivers. The market ...
China is expanding its economic pressure toolkit while maintaining a trade truce with the Trump administration, and the market for whether Trump will visit China by May 31 has slipped to 73.5%
YES,οΏ½...
Senator Thom Tillis has announced his support for Kevin Warshβs confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair, following the DOJβs closure of its investigation into Jerome Powell. The odds for Warshβs c...
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the Iran war has surpassed its initial expected timeline, with President Trumpβs discretion cited as the determining factor for its conclusio...
