Articles by Estefano Gomez
Iran has proposed a new plan to prioritize reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending its naval blockade. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 is at 16%
YES, up from 15.5% earlier.οΏ½...
Keir Starmer has publicly committed to leading Labour into the next general election, and the market on whether he leaves office by June 30, 2026, now sits at 42.5%
YES, up from 41% twenty-four houοΏ½...
The odds for an Iranian regime fall by June 30 sit at 8.5%
, slightly up from 8% yesterday, as Washington and Tehran try to hold together a fragile ceasefire backed by Chinese diplomatic involvementοΏ½...
Bitcoin shot up over $1,000 within a minute on Binance amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. The April Bitcoin price market reflects this volatility, though long-term prediction markets remain unaffected. TheοΏ½...
The cancellation of US envoy trips to Iran has driven the April 30 peace deal market down to 2%
YES, falling from 10% yesterday.
The diplomatic meeting market has also shifted. Odds of no US-Iran οΏ½...
Iranβs Speaker Bagher Qalibaf claims the US has run out of oil-related options. The odds of a US-Iran peace deal by April 30 sit at 2%
YES, down from 10% yesterday.
Qalibafβs comments frame Ira...
Home Front Command has issued new security guidelines in northern Israel, signaling rising tensions with Hezbollah. The Polymarket ceasefire-by-June-30 contract sits at 100%
YES, but this escalatioοΏ½...
The head of the Gas Exporting Countriesβ Forum warned that structural gas demand destruction could reshape the global LNG market. The crude oil all-time high by April 30 contract sits at 1.0%
YES,...
OpenAI launched GPT-5.5 in ChatGPT and Codex, and the Polymarket contract for GPT-5.5 by April 30, 2026 now sits at 100%
YES.
Market reaction
The April 30 market reached 100%
YES, up from 98% jοΏ½...
Netanyahu has canceled the mass Meron celebration due to renewed fire from Lebanon, a decision that bears directly on the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market, currently at 100%
YES.
MarοΏ½...
