Articles by Estefano Gomez
Iranβs Intelligence Ministry arrested four individuals linked to a shooting at a pro-government event in Kerman. The market for crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 trades at 1.4%
YES.
...
The US cancelled envoy travel to Pakistan, marking a pivot from diplomacy to pressure on Iran. The odds of a diplomatic meeting by April 30 now sit at 0.9%
YES, down from 22% a week ago.
Market reοΏ½...
An armed attack at the White House Correspondentsβ Dinner has raised security concerns among Trump Administration officials. The odds of a Trump Cabinet resignation before 2027 are now at ?
YES.
...
The UK is working closely with the US on security measures as King Charles prepares for his US visit. Crude oil remains over $105 a barrel amid Strait of Hormuz tensions. The crude oil all time high οΏ½...
Israel dropped leaflets over Sour in southern Lebanon threatening residents, a move that strains the existing ceasefire. The market for a Trump endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by AprilοΏ½...
Israeli President Isaac Herzog is delaying a decision on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuβs pardon request and is instead pushing for a plea deal. The market for Netanyahu being out of power by Jun...
Netanyahu has ordered strikes on Hezbollah in response to ceasefire violations. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026 market holds at 100%
YES, though active military operations complicοΏ½...
Lebanon has released the last of its Hezbollah detainees on minimal bail, and the Polymarket contract for an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026 sits at 100% YES.
Market reaction
Both the AοΏ½...
Bitcoin is trading at $118,838.03 on April 26, 2026, and the Polymarket question βWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?β sits at near-zero odds with only six days left in the month.
Market reacti...
Egyptβs economic outlook has been slightly trimmed amid ongoing disruptions from the Iran war, with Polymarket contracts on crude oil hitting $90 by end of June drawing increased trading interest.
...
