Articles by Estefano Gomez
Todayβs Fed interest rate decision, Powellβs speech, and major tech earnings land simultaneously with rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The S&P 500 market for opening higher on A...
James Comey, former FBI Director, has been indicted again, now facing an arrest warrant for allegedly threatening President Trump. βJames Comey arrested by April 29?β sits at 76.5%
YES.
The mar...
Iranβs rial fell to a record low as the US naval blockade squeezes its economy. The likelihood of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 trades at 8%
YES.
The blockade, initiated in mid-April, has...
Teslaβs Q1 earnings exceeded expectations, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 against $0.36 expected and revenues of $22.387 billion, but the Polymarket contract on NVIDIA being the largest company by marke...
An IDF drone killed a Hezbollah member in southern Lebanon, and the odds of Israel withdrawing from Lebanon by April 30 are at 0.3%
YES on Polymarket.
The strike, combined with overnight attacks oοΏ½...
The Series A extension was led by ParaFi and Reciprocal Ventures, with Coinbase Ventures and more than 20 customer founders joining the round. Blockworks closed a Series A extension at a $192 millionοΏ½...
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid have formed the BeYachad alliance to oppose Prime Minister Netanyahu, with the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market sitting at roughly 15%
YES odds. The alliaοΏ½...
Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz only after the war concludes and with guarantees against resumption. The US-Iran ceasefire market for April 30 is at 2.9%
YES, down from 18% a week οΏ½...
Ukraineβs drone strikes into Russian territory have surpassed expectations with deep incursions and significant damage. The ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 0.2%
YES.
Market reaction
The Apr...
Middle Eastern energy disruptions are pushing WTI crude oil price expectations higher, with the WTI crude oil for April 2026 market pricing in a potential spike to $160 as geopolitical tensions squeeοΏ½...
