Articles by Estefano Gomez
Iranian hardliners are fighting over US nuclear negotiations, and the US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 market has dropped to 0.5%
YES, down from 2% yesterday.
Market reaction
The deal market sitsοΏ½...
A tech stock selloff has raised concerns over AI investments, with reports indicating OpenAI missed key sales and user growth targets. NVIDIAβs chances of being the largest company by market cap on ...
Iran has roughly 12-13 days of storage capacity left as the Strait of Hormuz blockade tightens, while the Polymarket contract on Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30 has collaοΏ½...
South Koreaβs central bank is holding rates steady, citing uncertainties from the Middle East conflict. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market sits at 14.5%
YES, down from 20% yesterday...
An Axios report describing Trump as βfrustrated but realisticβ about stalled Iran talks has driven the permanent peace deal by April 30 market down to 1.2%
YES, a sharp drop from 10% yesterday.
...
Markets are pricing a 100% probability that the Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% at the upcoming FOMC meeting, a shift from earlier expectations of rate cuts before the U.S.-Iran conflict eοΏ½...
Qatarβs foreign ministry spokesman Majed Al Ansari said the Strait of Hormuz should not be used as a pressure card, signaling de-escalation in the Iran-US crisis. The odds for crude oil hitting all-...
Viktor Orbanβs offer to resign as Fidesz party president after the Hungarian election loss has been turned down by the party leadership, and odds for him being the next leader out before 2027 are ex...
A recording reveals Qatar offered to βlook afterβ ICC prosecutor Karim Khan if he pursued charges against Netanyahu. The Netanyahu out by June 30 market prices this at 5.5%
YES.
Market reaction...
Mohammad Javad Zarif suggests Iran declare victory and offer nuclear curbs for sanctions relief. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 sits at 1.2%
YES, down from 10% yesterday.
Market reacοΏ½...
