Articles by Estefano Gomez
Iran’s Parliament Speaker revealed a direct confrontation with the US over a minesweeper in the Strait of Hormuz. The market for a diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 13%
YES, down from 22% yes...
ADB President Masato Kanda warned that Japan’s gradual rate hikes are putting pressure on the yen, and the Polymarket contract “Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?...
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister announced talks with the US are on hold pending a mutually agreed framework, and the market for no qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 sits at 2%
YES.
...
The UN Security Council will convene following Ukraine’s request to address Russian shelling and civilian casualties. The odds of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30 are at 9.5%
YES, down from 1...
Two vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz have reported gunfire incidents. The likelihood of the UK sending warships through the Strait by April 30 sits at 6%
YES, down from 12% a week a�...
Trump’s blockade of Iranian ports continues despite the strait’s reopening, and the market for a US blockade lift by May 31 sits at 86%
YES amid conflicting announcements about the waterway’s ...
Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria party is leading polls before Bulgaria’s April 19 election, with the Polymarket contract on Radev becoming the next prime minister at 96.4%
YES, up from 74% a ...
Reports of increased repression and economic deterioration in Iran continue after the ceasefire. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by May 31 are at 4%
YES, up slightly from 3.9% a week ago.
M�...
Iran opened its airspace and several airports on Saturday, following a ceasefire agreement with the US that began April 7. The market for Iran striking Israel by April 30 currently sits at 100.0% YES�...
Hezbollah’s recent street displays of force in Lebanon are raising concerns about the ceasefire with Israel. The odds for an Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 are at 94%
YES, a significant ...
