Articles by Estefano Gomez
Senator Thom Tillis has announced his support for Kevin Warshβs confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair, following the DOJβs closure of its investigation into Jerome Powell. The odds for Warshβs c...
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the Iran war has surpassed its initial expected timeline, with President Trumpβs discretion cited as the determining factor for its conclusio...
Iran has moved 4 million barrels of crude oil past the US blockade, and the Polymarket contract on crude oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1%
YES, down from 2% a day ago.
Market reaοΏ½...
Israeli attacks have killed over 2,500 people in Lebanon since March 2026, with the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market at 100%
YES.
Market reaction
Both the ceasefire by April 30 and οΏ½...
The cancellation of U.S. envoysβ visit to Islamabad has cast doubt on peace talks, with the odds of a U.S.-Iran peace deal by April 30 dropping to 2%
YES from 10% just a day ago.
Market reaction
...
EgyptAir will resume flights to Riyadh, Doha, and Beirut, a sign of easing Gulf tensions, while the Polymarket contract on an Iranian strike on Israel by April 30, 2026, sits at 100%
YES.
Market rοΏ½...
Inflation is flaring, hiring is slowing, and the Fed is split. The potential impact of Kevin Warsh taking over as Fed Chair has traders on edge. The market for a 4.25% federal funds rate by the end oοΏ½...
Tanker tracker data shows that 4 million barrels have slipped past the US blockade at the Strait of Hormuz. The odds for traffic normalization by April 30 sit at ?
YES, with 6 days left until resolοΏ½...
Mark Gurman reports that Tim Cook is passing a product lineup including a foldable iPhone to John Ternus, and the Polymarket contract for Ternus as the next Apple CEO sits at 73%
YES.
Market reactοΏ½...
Iran has rejected nuclear limits in ceasefire talks, prioritizing sanctions relief and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 have dropοΏ½...
