Articles by Estefano Gomez
A fuel crisis has gripped Tuvalu due to blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil trade. The odds for US crude oil reserves falling to 325M by May 1 sit at 2%
YES.
Market reaction
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Bitcoin reached $78,000 as US-Iran tensions pushed traders into crypto, though the probability of a dip to $60,000 in April remains low given current conditions.
Market reaction
The April 30 marketοΏ½...
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilarβs prediction of imminent US decapitation strikes on Iran complicates ceasefire prospects, with Trumpβs end of military operations against Iran by March 31 sitting at 0%
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DeepSeek has delayed its V4 model release to integrate with Chinaβs domestic chip ecosystem, and the market for βWill Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?β sits at 15%
YES....
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar warns of rising nuclear strike risks as U.S.-Iran talks collapse. The odds for a nuclear deal by April 30 have dropped to 2.6%
YES, down from 7% yesterday.
With talks deadοΏ½...
Keir Starmerβs Labour Party is projected to lose seats in the May 7 UK local and regional elections. The market on Starmer being ousted by December 31, 2026, has jumped to 72%
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The June 30, 2026 ...
Iran broadcast footage from inside the seized vessel Epaminondas, and the Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by May 31 is expected to drop, with a potential 15% move.
MarketοΏ½...
Macron offered full support to Trump after an armed attack on the US President. The US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26 market sits at 0.3%
YES, down from 9% yesterday.
Macronβs endorsement co...
Iranian lawmaker Fadahossein Maleki has suggested preemptive strikes against the US are possible. The Polymarket contract on the Iranian regime falling by June 30 has moved to 8.5%
YES, up from 8% οΏ½...
The Iranian Parliament Vice President refused to restore normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz, and the odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 dropped to 2.6%
YES, down from 10% just 24 hourοΏ½...
