Articles by Estefano Gomez
The US is considering new strikes if Iran continues its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The market on Trump announcing the blockade is lifted by May 31 sits at 59.5%
YES, down from 77% yesterday.οΏ½...
The International Energy Agency projects the gas crisis from the Iran war may extend for two years, pushing odds on crude oil hitting $90 by end of June sharply higher, with a 25% expected move in odοΏ½...
Trumpβs assertion that the Hormuz blockade is fully effective clashes with reports of Iranian ships breaching it. The odds of Trump announcing the blockadeβs lift by May 31 have dropped to 59.5%
...
Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $2 billion in net inflows over an 8-day positive streak. The market for Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by June 30, 2026, is at 3% YES, unchanged over the past week.
οΏ½...
Iranβs crackdown intensifies with reports of increased executions and abuse in prisons. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market sits at 8.5%
YES, up from 6% a week ago.
The May 31 market remain...
Kuwait reports two drones launched from Iraq targeted its northern border posts, with no casualties. The market for Gulf state military action against Iran by April 30 is at 6%
YES, up from 5% yestοΏ½...
Healthcare workers in Tehran fear a medicine shortage as a naval blockade disrupts supply chains. The market for Iran targeting ships by April 30 sits at 30%
YES.
The blockade in the Strait of HorοΏ½...
Israeli strikes on Al-Khiam in Southern Lebanon continue despite the existing ceasefire with Hezbollah. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 100%
YES, but ongoing military acοΏ½...
ECB board member Kazimir has indicated that the Iran war may require a slight ECB rate increase due to inflationary pressures. The probability of a 50+ bps rate cut at the April 2026 meeting sits at οΏ½...
The probability of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by April has dropped to 10%
, down from 20% just 24 hours ago, as US economic pressure on Iran reaches new highs.
The April market nοΏ½...
