Articles by Estefano Gomez
Six of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks have fallen into bear territory as U.S.-Iran tensions escalate, but the odds of NVIDIA becoming the largest company by market cap on June 30 hold at 92%
YESοΏ½...
Peter Kazimir has suggested the Iran war might necessitate a slight ECB interest rate hike. The market for a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting sits at 0.1%
YES.
Market reaction
Kazimirβ...
Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high in 2026, driven by IBIT options activity and TradFi volume. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin setting a new peak by June 30 sits at 2.6%
YES.
Market reactοΏ½...
OpenAI failed to meet its user and revenue targets, sparking internal concerns about covering its data center expenses. The likelihood of GPT-5.5 releasing by June 30, 2026, sits at 100%
YES, unchaοΏ½...
Al Jazeera is reporting that both Israel and Hezbollah have engaged in limited ceasefire violations, yet the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire market holds at 100%
YES for a stable ceasefire by June 30.οΏ½...
Emirates NBD is pursuing the first Gulf public debt sale since the Iran war began, and the Polymarket contract for Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30 has dropped to 1.9%
YES, down οΏ½...
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid have formed a new political alliance aimed at unseating Netanyahuβs government, with the odds of Netanyahu being out by June 30 at 5.5%
YES.
The alliance, called οΏ½...
Two rejections at the $80K level in a single week, yet massive ETF inflows and a historically bullish April suggest the story isn't over. Bitcoin tried to break $80K twice in the past seven days. BotοΏ½...
The US-Iran conflict has intensified, disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and pushing Brent crude over $100 per barrel, while the Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April trades at 25%οΏ½...
Hezbollah Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem denounced Beirutβs peace talks with Israel in Washington as humiliating, while the group released footage of a drone strike on IDF troops. The Israel-H...
