Articles by Estefano Gomez
Ukraineβs drone strikes into Russian territory have surpassed expectations with deep incursions and significant damage. The ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 0.2%
YES.
Market reaction
The Apr...
Middle Eastern energy disruptions are pushing WTI crude oil price expectations higher, with the WTI crude oil for April 2026 market pricing in a potential spike to $160 as geopolitical tensions squeeοΏ½...
Iranβs internet shutdown has reached 60 days, compounding economic and social disruption. The market for the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sits at 7.5%
YES, slightly down from 8% a day ago.
T...
A civilian contractor associated with the Israeli Defense Ministry was killed in southern Lebanon, an event with potential implications for Polymarketβs ceasefire-related contracts. The Israel x Hez...
Donald Trump is weighing an Iranian offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, potentially easing oil market tensions. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April 2026 sits at 0.2%
YES.
The prospect of de-escaοΏ½...
The U.S. is exporting natural gas at full capacity, unable to meet the demand spike caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure. The WTI Crude Oil market for hitting $160 in April sits at 0.2% YES.
MarkeοΏ½...
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady, with rate cuts unlikely despite leadership changes. The βWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?β market trades at 43.1%
YES, up from...
Sergey Lavrov welcomed Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi for discussions with President Vladimir Putin, confirming a YES resolution for βPutin meets with Iranian officials by May 15,β which ...
Strategy purchased 3,273 BTC for $255M, bringing its total holdings to 818,334 BTC. On Polymarket, the contract for Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 4.8%
YES.
The acquisitioοΏ½...
MPs voted down a motion to investigate Prime Minister Keir Starmer for allegedly misleading Parliament about Peter Mandelsonβs appointment. The market for Starmer resigning by June 30, 2026, sits at...
