Articles by Estefano Gomez
The assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists has heightened fears of uranium and nuclear expertise reaching the black market, with proliferation risks tied to regime instability. The likelihood ofοΏ½...
A viral IRGC Navy transmission on Channel 16 declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, pending orders from Supreme Leader Khamenei. The likelihood of the UK sending warships through the Strait by April 3οΏ½...
Iranβs Mehr news reports US forces fired on an Iranian merchant ship, prompting IRGC naval intervention. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by May 31 sits at 0%
YES.
The incident reinforces t...
US Marines have taken custody of an Iranian-flagged vessel attempting to breach the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a social media post by President Donald Trump. βStrait of Hormuz...
Crypto thefts in 2025 reached $3.4 billion, driven by state actors and mega-hacks. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April sits at 0% YES, while Bitcoin above $62,000 on AprilοΏ½...
U.S. military planes are landing in the region as Iran warns of ongoing conflict. The probability of U.S. ground forces entering Iran by year-end is expected to increase by 15%, while the likelihood οΏ½...
Israel is preparing for potential escalation with Iran as US military posture shifts. The likelihood of the US-Iran ceasefire ending by April 21 is at 20%
YES, up from 6% just a day ago.
Market reοΏ½...
President Trump has convened a White House Situation Room meeting to address Iranβs closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic meetings with Iran by April 30 sit at 13%
YES, down from 22% yesterd...
A Hezbollah post-ceasefire booby trap killed an IDF reservist in southern Lebanon. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 100%
YES, though the attack raises questions about whethοΏ½...
US forces have returned 23 vessels to Iran as part of a naval blockade, and the Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market prices traffic returning to normal by June at 0%
YES.
Traders read theοΏ½...
