Estefano Gomez

Articles by Estefano Gomez

Iran, US officials meet in Islamabad as Pakistan mediates

Crypto April 25, 2026

Iran’s Foreign Minister and US representatives are converging in Islamabad, with Pakistan acting as mediator. The market for a Trump-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 2% YES. Market rea...

Netanyahu reveals prostate cancer treatment amid Iran conflict, political fallout likely

Crypto April 25, 2026

Netanyahu revealed he underwent radiation therapy for early-stage prostate cancer. The market on Netanyahu out by June 30 sits at 5.5% YES. Netanyahu concealed the treatment while Israel was engag�...

Bitcoin rally driven by spot demand, ETF inflows: Coinbase Institutional

Crypto April 25, 2026

Coinbase Institutional has identified spot demand and ETF inflows as the main drivers of Bitcoin’s recent surge. Bitcoin above $68,000 on April 24 is at 99.9% YES. The report says Bitcoin’s ral...

Bank of Russia cuts interest rate amid easing inflation pressures

Crypto April 25, 2026

Russia’s Central Bank reduced its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 14.5% in its April decision. The Polymarket question on whether the Bank of Russia would decrease the rate resolved at 100% ...

Israel escalates operations in southern Lebanon amid diplomatic tensions

Crypto April 25, 2026

Israel’s operations in southern Lebanon have raised tensions and complicated diplomatic efforts. The market on Netanyahu leaving office by June 30 sits at 6% YES. Market reaction The destruction...

Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair nomination signals hawkish stance on inflation

Crypto April 25, 2026

Kevin Warsh, nominated as Federal Reserve Chair, is calling for improved inflation metrics. The market for no change in the federal funds rate after the July 2026 FOMC meeting trades at 83.5% YES, �...

Trump calls Candace Owens “extremely low IQ,” traders eye Carlson insult

Crypto April 25, 2026

President Trump has escalated his feud with Candace Owens by calling her an “extremely low IQ individual.” The market for Trump publicly insulting Tucker Carlson by April 30 sits at 100% YES. T...

Trump’s confrontational Iran stance dims April 2026 peace deal prospects

Crypto April 25, 2026

President Trump is reaffirming a confrontational approach to Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and the probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026 has dropped sharply. The market sits...

Nvidia reclaims $5T market cap amid US-China AI chip talks

Crypto April 25, 2026

Nvidia’s stock hit $210, reclaiming the $5 trillion market cap. The market on whether it will be the largest company by market cap on April 30 is at 99.6% YES. Market reaction The move comes as ...

Trump administration reclassifies FDA-approved marijuana to Schedule III

Crypto April 25, 2026

The Trump administration has reclassified FDA-approved marijuana products to Schedule III, recognizing their medical use and lower abuse potential. The market for marijuana being rescheduled by Decem�...