Articles by Estefano Gomez
Iran’s Foreign Minister and US representatives are converging in Islamabad, with Pakistan acting as mediator. The market for a Trump-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 2%
YES.
Market rea...
Netanyahu revealed he underwent radiation therapy for early-stage prostate cancer. The market on Netanyahu out by June 30 sits at 5.5%
YES.
Netanyahu concealed the treatment while Israel was engag�...
Coinbase Institutional has identified spot demand and ETF inflows as the main drivers of Bitcoin’s recent surge. Bitcoin above $68,000 on April 24 is at 99.9%
YES.
The report says Bitcoin’s ral...
Russia’s Central Bank reduced its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 14.5% in its April decision. The Polymarket question on whether the Bank of Russia would decrease the rate resolved at 100% ...
Israel’s operations in southern Lebanon have raised tensions and complicated diplomatic efforts. The market on Netanyahu leaving office by June 30 sits at 6%
YES.
Market reaction
The destruction...
Kevin Warsh, nominated as Federal Reserve Chair, is calling for improved inflation metrics. The market for no change in the federal funds rate after the July 2026 FOMC meeting trades at 83.5%
YES, �...
President Trump has escalated his feud with Candace Owens by calling her an “extremely low IQ individual.” The market for Trump publicly insulting Tucker Carlson by April 30 sits at 100%
YES.
T...
President Trump is reaffirming a confrontational approach to Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and the probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026 has dropped sharply. The market sits...
Nvidia’s stock hit $210, reclaiming the $5 trillion market cap. The market on whether it will be the largest company by market cap on April 30 is at 99.6%
YES.
Market reaction
The move comes as ...
The Trump administration has reclassified FDA-approved marijuana products to Schedule III, recognizing their medical use and lower abuse potential. The market for marijuana being rescheduled by Decem�...
