Articles by Estefano Gomez
Israeli public sentiment is souring amid a US-Iran ceasefire, with despair rising and trust in leadership falling. The Iran military action by April 30 market sits at 100%
YES.
Market reaction
ThοΏ½...
The US is delaying weapons deliveries to some European countries to prioritize its military needs in the Iran theater. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by the end of May is at 34%
YES.
οΏ½...
OpenAI has agreed to a $20 billion deal for Cerebras chips that includes an equity stake in the company, pushing USD.AI FDV predictions to 15%
YES, a 15% increase from previous expectations.
MarkeοΏ½...
Macron and Starmer have rallied allies to consider a multinational mission for securing the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of the UK sending warships by April 30, 2026, sit at 5.5%
YES, down from 12% aοΏ½...
Ukrainian Prime Ministerβs Washington visit spurred reconstruction talks, pushing the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 market to 5.9%
YES, up from 5% a week ago.
Market reaction
The ceasefire ...
President Pezeshkian has commended Pakistanβs mediation efforts in the US-Iran conflict. The market for a ceasefire breach announcement by April 21 is at 9.0%
YES, down from 33% a week ago.
Pezes...
Roberto SΓ‘nchez has accused Rafael LΓ³pez Aliaga of avoiding legal scrutiny for inflammatory remarks. LΓ³pez Aliagaβs chances of winning the 2026 Peruvian presidential election sit at 14.5%
YES, ...
Israeli UN envoy Danny Danon warned that Israel would react if threatened, adding friction to already strained Israel-Iran relations. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026, market sits aοΏ½...
Trump dismissed rising inflation reports during comments from Las Vegas, and the prediction market for his upcoming Fox Business interview has shifted, with odds of him mentioning economic terms now οΏ½...
Anthropic has released Claude Opus 4.7, resolving the Polymarket contract on whether the model would ship by May 31, which now sits at 100% YES
, up from 38% a week ago.
The confirmed release movedοΏ½...
