Articles by Estefano Gomez
Rumen Radev is leading polls for Bulgariaβs April 19 parliamentary election, with the Polymarket contract for him becoming the next Prime Minister at 90.8%
YES, up from 74% a week ago.
Radev, a f...
Trump declared the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz ends when an agreement is signed. The market for a blockade lift by May 31 is at 90%
YES.
Market reaction
Trumpβs conditional statement has...
Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open, with oil tankers back in action. The probability of Trump lifting the US blockade by May 31 sits at 90%
YES.
The Straitβs reopening has pushed up...
OpenAI has lost two executives, with COO Brad Lightcap shifting to special projects and Fidji Simo taking medical leave. The market for GPT-5.5 release by June 30, 2026, sits at 96.9%
YES, slightlyοΏ½...
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called Canada βsucksβ and threatened to end the trade deal, while the Polymarket contract on whether the S&P 500 opens up or down on April 15 sits at 100.0...
Anthropicβs launch of Claude Design, powered by Claude Opus 4.7, has moved design software markets on Polymarket. The Claude 4.7 release by April 30 market sits at 100% YES
, confirming the release...
Iranβs Foreign Ministry declared that its 60% enriched uranium will not be exported, pushing the odds of the U.S. obtaining Iranian uranium by May 31 down to 26.5%
YES from 20% yesterday.
The US ...
Ukraineβs drone campaign has reportedly damaged Russian oil facilities and prompted a Russian warning to Europe, pushing the probability of crude oil reaching $90 by June 30 to 75%
YES.
Market re...
Trump announced Iranβs agreement to permit US personnel to collect leftover uranium. The market for βIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30β now sits at 44.3%
YES, up from 35% ju...
Iran denied Trumpβs suggestion of a uranium handover to secure peace. The market for Iran surrendering its stockpile by April 30 is at 45%
YES, up from 25% yesterday but likely to face pressure.
...
