Articles by Estefano Gomez
Iran’s official Mortazavi confirmed the Caspian Sea’s integration into supply chains for essential goods, citing ongoing concerns with the Strait of Hormuz. The probability of 80 ships transiting ...
Tom Lee and Bitmine Immersion Technologies have accumulated more than 5 million Ethereum (ETH), reaching their “Alchemy of 5%” target. Ethereum above $1,900 on April 24 is at 99.9%
YES.
Market ...
Trump is set to hold a national security meeting on the Iran stalemate, while the Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $76,000 by April 24 sits at 0.1%
YES.
The Bitcoin price market for Apri�...
Trump plans a national security meeting to discuss the Iran stalemate, as reported by CNN. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April are at 3%
, down from 14% yesterday.
Ne�...
The US-Iran conflict, marked by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has raised questions about the petrodollar’s future, but prediction markets show limited movement. The Crude Oil All Time H...
Goldman Sachs says global markets want resolution on US-Iran tensions. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April sits at 0.2%
YES.
Market reaction
The contract has dropped f�...
Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer could face a leadership challenge after local elections on May 7. The odds of him being out by December 31, 2026, currently sit at 68.5%
YES, up from 66% a da...
Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz during Pakistan-mediated talks, while nuclear deal negotiations remain at an impasse. The market for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by M�...
US officials are set to discuss resuming bombing campaigns on Iran. The market for Iran striking Israel by April 30 sits at 100%
YES.
With only six days left until the April 30 resolution, the ful�...
The EU’s energy bill has increased by $32 billion due to the Iran war, adding economic pressure across the bloc. The odds of an ECB 50+ bps interest rate cut at the April 2026 meeting sit at 0.1%
...
