Articles by Estefano Gomez
## Market Snapshot
In the “Trump’s Iranian Demands in April” market, the likelihood of a YES outcome has decreased, with recent pricing suggesting resistance to Iranian demands. The “US Decla...
## Market Snapshot
The market for “Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?” is currently priced at 6.5% YES, down from 8% a week ago. The April 30, 2026, sub-market remai...
## Market Snapshot
US Forces Enter Iran market is currently priced with a NO-leaning indication, reflective of a de-escalation scenario following the USS Gerald R. Ford’s departure. Strait of Hormu...
## Market Snapshot
Strait of Hormuz Traffic market is currently not reporting a definitive YES or NO outcome. The recent news has implications for ongoing shipping disruptions, with potential effect�...
## Market Snapshot
In the “Trump Out as President by April 30” market, the YES pricing is at 0.1%, unchanged from 24 hours ago, with no time remaining. The “US Invasion of Iran” market shows ...
## Market Snapshot Russia x Ukraine ceasefire market is priced at 9.5% YES, up from 8% a week ago. This market shows moderate volume, with a 1-point fluctuation noted recently.
## Key Takeaways – R...
## Market Snapshot
The US-Iran ceasefire market currently shows a 0.1% probability for a YES outcome, down from 1% a day ago. In the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting market, the outcome remains uncer�...
## Market Snapshot
In the “Trump’s Acquisition of Greenland” market, the current pricing suggests a decreased likelihood of a YES outcome due to recent geopolitical tensions. The odds have move...
## Market Snapshot
The market for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026, is currently priced at 22% YES, down from 24% 24 hours ago. Meanwhile, the market for the US obtaining Iranian enric�...
## Market Snapshot
Bitcoin’s market for May 1 shows a 99.9% YES pricing for surpassing $68,000, slightly down from 100% 24h ago. May 2 markets also show a 99.9% YES pricing for the same price level...
