Articles by Estefano Gomez
Kuwait reports two drones launched from Iraq targeted its northern border posts, with no casualties. The market for Gulf state military action against Iran by April 30 is at 6%
YES, up from 5% yestοΏ½...
Healthcare workers in Tehran fear a medicine shortage as a naval blockade disrupts supply chains. The market for Iran targeting ships by April 30 sits at 30%
YES.
The blockade in the Strait of HorοΏ½...
Israeli strikes on Al-Khiam in Southern Lebanon continue despite the existing ceasefire with Hezbollah. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 100%
YES, but ongoing military acοΏ½...
ECB board member Kazimir has indicated that the Iran war may require a slight ECB rate increase due to inflationary pressures. The probability of a 50+ bps rate cut at the April 2026 meeting sits at οΏ½...
The probability of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by April has dropped to 10%
, down from 20% just 24 hours ago, as US economic pressure on Iran reaches new highs.
The April market nοΏ½...
The US has sent emergency fuel shipments to Australia as the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues disrupting global oil supply. Odds for US escorts through Hormuz by April 30 sit at 5.5%
YES, down fοΏ½...
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is contemplating a general election in the third quarter, conditional on his government avoiding further subsidy cuts. The US has simultaneously increased pressοΏ½...
Rising energy costs from the Iran conflict are adding pressure to Germanyβs economic outlook, but the market for a 50+ bps ECB rate decrease at its April 2026 meeting sits at 0%
YES, unchanged.
D...
Yara International reported stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings as the Iran war keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to commercial traffic. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market pοΏ½...
A massive ETHFI token unlock threatening 95.7% dilution has surfaced, drawing attention to Ethereum price markets. The market for Ethereum to hit $10,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 4.2%
YES, uncοΏ½...
