Articles by Estefano Gomez
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is contemplating a general election in the third quarter, conditional on his government avoiding further subsidy cuts. The US has simultaneously increased pressοΏ½...
Rising energy costs from the Iran conflict are adding pressure to Germanyβs economic outlook, but the market for a 50+ bps ECB rate decrease at its April 2026 meeting sits at 0%
YES, unchanged.
D...
Yara International reported stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings as the Iran war keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to commercial traffic. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market pοΏ½...
A massive ETHFI token unlock threatening 95.7% dilution has surfaced, drawing attention to Ethereum price markets. The market for Ethereum to hit $10,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 4.2%
YES, uncοΏ½...
Morgan Stanley has unveiled a Stablecoin Reserves Portfolio, a government money market fund targeting stablecoin issuers, timed to meet anticipated GENIUS Act reserve requirements. USDC depeg by DeceοΏ½...
Iran plans to include the US-Israel war in school textbooks, and the odds for an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 have dropped to 2%
YES, down from 5% yesterday, on the Israel-Iran peacοΏ½...
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon continue even after a US-brokered ceasefire extension. The Polymarket odds for Trump endorsing an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 sit at 100%
YES, a price that οΏ½...
The firing of Navy Secretary John Phelan, announced through a Pentagon social media post, has drawn attention to the market for the next Trump Cabinet departure. The likelihood of a Cabinet exit befoοΏ½...
Israeli Channel 12 reports that the defense minister is shifting strategy toward economic disruption of Iran. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market is at 8.5%
YES, up from 8% yesterday and 6% aοΏ½...
SpaceXβs focus on AI in its IPO filing has pushed the odds of a timely public offering higher. The market for SpaceX going public by June 30, 2026, sits at 74%
YES, up from 71% yesterday.
Market ...
