Articles by Estefano Gomez
Trump stated βIf thereβs no deal, fighting resumes,β adding geopolitical tension to crypto markets. The Bitcoin $60,000 dip market sits at 15%
YES for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April.
Mar...
President Trump expressed optimism about a potential deal with Iran, citing the effectiveness of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 οΏ½...
A White House memo signals possible agency access to a modified version of Anthropics restricted Mythos model, which remains under tight controls over cyber misuse fears. The US government is prepariοΏ½...
The U.S. is preparing to counter Iranian fast-attack boats using lethal tactics proven effective in Venezuela. Kharg Island control by June 30 is at 12.5%
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Market reaction
The Kharg Island controοΏ½...
Trump expressed willingness to visit Pakistan to finalize a US-Iran deal. The permanent peace deal market for April 22, 2026, is at 28.5%
YES, up from 12% a week ago.
Market reaction
Trumpβs com...
Trumpβs warning of renewed hostilities if no ceasefire deal is reached has pushed traders further toward skepticism on a quick resolution. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 sits at 8%
...
Netanyahu has agreed to a 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon, brokered by Trump, to advance peace negotiations. The market for Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026 is at 99.0%
YES.
The temporοΏ½...
The White House said Iranβs ability to conduct business is severely hindered by the ongoing U.S.-led blockade. The uranium enrichment agreement market for April 30 moved to 39.2%
YES, up from 35% ...
Israelβs reported secret meeting with Marine Le Pen marks a break in its longstanding boycott of the National Rally party, and her 2027 French presidential election odds now sit at 5.5%
YES, down ...
Lebanonβs direct talks with Israeli and American officials have moved forward, and the Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting market for April 30 is at 100%
YES.
Market reaction
Lebanonβs participa...
