Articles by Estefano Gomez
Iranβs Foreign Minister Araghchiβs talks with Pakistani officials ended without progress. The probability of a US-Iran meeting by April 26 dropped to 10%
YES.
Market reaction
Odds for a diplom...
OpenAIβs GPT-5.5 Pro is now available on Venice, pushing βGPT-5.5 released by April 30β to 100%
YES.
The April 23 market also hit 100%
YES, up from 93% just a day ago. Odds had climbed stea...
Iran refused to meet US negotiators Witkoff and Kushner in Pakistan. The odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 sit at 9.5%
YES, down from 61% a week ago.
The permanent peace deal by AοΏ½...
Bloombergβs podcast named John Ternus as the next CEO of Apple, with Tim Cook stepping down on September 1, 2026, to become executive chairman. The Next CEO of Apple market is expected to reprice sh...
A quantum computer broke a 15-bit elliptic curve key in a Bitcoin-related test. The demonstration doesnβt immediately threaten Bitcoinβs 256-bit security but raises questions about future vulnerab...
Iranβs Foreign Ministry said no meeting with the US is planned. The April 24 US-Iran diplomatic meeting market dropped to 0%
YES, down from 1% a day ago.
The denial moved other dates too. The Apr...
Donald Trump criticized the Supreme Courtβs tariff ruling, and his potential visit to China by May 31 dropped to 73.5%
YES, down from 76% yesterday.
The Supreme Court invalidated tariffs imposed ...
The Trump administration has ended its investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, removing a key obstacle for Kevin Warshβs confirmation. Warshβs confirmation by May 15 now sits at 82...
Aave DAO is considering a 25,000 ETH contribution to help restore rsETH backing after the Kelp bridge incident, with DeFi Uniteds recovery stack now appearing to fill the shortfall. Aave DAO service οΏ½...
Global AI investment is projected to hit $5.2 trillion by 2030, concentrated in data centers. The best Chinese AI company by April 2026 market has moved in response, with odds for Alibaba increasing οΏ½...
