Articles by Estefano Gomez
Iranβs Deputy Foreign Minister dismissed the idea of a temporary ceasefire and proposed a new protocol for the Strait of Hormuz instead. The April 21 ceasefire market has dropped to 5.5%
YES, down...
The US Department of Energy has issued oil loans from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to nine companies, including BP, Energy Transfer Crude Marketing, and ExxonMobil. The market for crude oil οΏ½...
An Iranian state news outlet questioned Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchiβs tweet about the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Trumpβs blockade announcement by May 31 is at 91.5%
YES.
Araghchiβs tweet...
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called for βpermanent agreementsβ following the Israel truce, and the odds of an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30 are at 100%
YES on Polymarket.
Mark...
Three Iranian oil tankers under US sanctions have left the Gulf carrying five million barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April οΏ½...
The European Central Bank continues to signal restraint on rate cuts during the Middle East conflict, and the Polymarket contract for a 50+ basis point decrease at the April 2026 meeting sits at 0.3%οΏ½...
IEA chief Fatih Birol says markets are underestimating the Strait of Hormuz closureβs impact. Crude oil hitting $90 by June 30 is at 75%
YES.
Birolβs warning comes as Iranβs blockade of the S...
ECBβs Madis MΓΌller said a rate move in April canβt be ruled out. The market for a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting sits at 0.3%
YES, unchanged from a week ago.
MΓΌllerβs comments a...
The Gulf Warβs aftermath has produced a $58 billion repair bill and a global equipment shortfall, as the US-Iran conflict enters its seventh week following an April 8 ceasefire. The market on whethe...
Trump has proposed ceasefire talks to end the Iran war, including a 20-year nuclear moratorium. The odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 sit at 41.0%
YES, up from 35% a day aοΏ½...
