Pakistan Hails Court of Arbitration Supplemental Award as Strategic Victory on Indus Waters Treaty

ISLAMABAD - The Government of Pakistan has welcomed the Court of Arbitration's Supplemental Award concerning Maximum Pondage, delivered on May 15, 2026, in the Indus Waters Treaty proceedings arising from disputes over the Ratle Hydroelectric Plant and the Kishenganga Hydroelectric Project design .

The Award affirms Pakistan's central position that the Treaty places substantive limits on India's water-control capability on the Western Rivers - limits that apply at the planning and design stage and cannot be satisfied merely by later assurances of operational restraint .

A Strategic Consolidation of Pakistan's Treaty Position

The Supplemental Award builds on the Court's General Issues Award of August 8, 2025, giving practical effect to the standard that installed capacity and anticipated load must be realistic, well-founded, and defensible .

The Award addresses a core Treaty concern: India cannot justify increased Pondage through imagined capacity, artificial load curves, unrealistic peaking assumptions, or bare assertions of compliance with Paragraph 15 release limits .

Pondage Must Be Justified by Real Project Needs

Under the Award, Pondage for a Run-of-River Plant must be justified by:

• Real project needs

• Actual expected operation

• Site hydrology and hydraulic conditions

• Power-system requirements

• Information and explanation required under the Treaty

This rejects India's longstanding practice of designing projects with maximum possible capacity without regard to hydrological realities or Treaty limits .

Strengthened Review Rights for Pakistan

The Award also strengthens Pakistan's review rights. India must provide Pakistan with sufficient information and explanation to assess Treaty compliance .

If India fails to do so, it fails to carry its burden of establishing that the proposed maximum Pondage satisfies Paragraph 8(c) of Annexure D .

Minimum-Flow Obligations Must Be Considered

The Court further confirmed that any applicable minimum-flow obligation must be taken into account in calculating Pondage required for Firm Power where such obligation exists and is not otherwise satisfied .

Crucially, Paragraph 15 release requirements do not automatically satisfy such an obligation . This prevents India from using operational release limits as a substitute for proper project design .

Final and Binding on the Parties

Pakistan notes the Court's earlier holding that the awards of a Court of Arbitration are final and binding on the Parties and have otherwise controlling legal effect for subsequent Treaty bodies on relevant questions of Treaty interpretation .

Pakistan will place these interpretations before the Neutral Expert process , consistent with Treaty procedures and applicable confidentiality arrangements .

Key Takeaways from the Supplemental Award

Pakistan's Commitment to the Indus Waters Treaty

Pakistan remains committed to the Indus Waters Treaty, its dispute-resolution procedures, and the peaceful settlement of water-related differences .

Pakistan will continue to protect its rights under the IWT and will pursue every lawful and diplomatic means to ensure that hydroelectric projects on the Western Rivers are designed and operated strictly within Treaty limits .

The Award is a strategic consolidation of Pakistan's Treaty position : maximum Pondage must be:

• Realistic

• Evidence-based

• Hydrologically grounded

• Power-system justified

• Treaty-compliant

• Incapable of inflation through artificial assumptions

What This Means for India-Pakistan Water Relations

The Supplemental Award significantly constrains India's ability to design hydroelectric projects on the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) in ways that could affect Pakistan's water supply .

India can no longer:

• Design projects based on imagined or exaggerated capacity

• Use artificial load curves to justify increased Pondage

• Rely on operational release limits as substitutes for proper project design

• Withhold information needed for Pakistan to assess Treaty compliance

India must now:

• Justify Pondage based on real project needs and actual hydrology

• Ensure installed capacity corresponds to expected operation

• Provide Pakistan with sufficient information to assess compliance

• Take minimum-flow obligations into account separately from release limits

Pakistan's strategic position under the Indus Waters Treaty has been significantly strengthened. The Court of Arbitration has affirmed that Treaty limits are substantive, not formalities - and that India cannot circumvent them through operational assurances or artificial assumptions .