Iran Out, Turkey and Pakistan In: Israeli Analyst Says Next 'Arch Enemy' Will Be One of Them

TEL AVIV - As Iran's military capabilities lie devastated after 40 days of war with the United States and Israel, a prominent Israeli analyst has declared that Tehran will be "forced to vacate the role of Israel's great enemy" - and that either Turkey or Pakistan is poised to take its place .

In an opinion piece published by the Israeli daily Maariv, Boaz Golani, a professor at the Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, argues that the competition for the title of Israel's next arch-nemesis has effectively narrowed down to two regional powers .

"Two large countries (85 million inhabitants in Turkey, 240 million in Pakistan), both with a solid Sunni majority, both with an authoritarian regime that relies on the bayonets of the military, both with large armies and, strangely enough, both with good relations with the United States, Israel's main ally," Golani wrote .

Golani traces Israel's historical arc of enemies - from Egypt after the War of Independence, to Iraq following the 1991 missile attacks, to Iran under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which he claims has spent three decades "faithfully fulfilling" the role. But the latest war, combined with Iran's crumbling economy and the financing of proxy organizations, has brought Tehran's regional power to its knees .

"Although it is still unclear how the current conflict will end, it is clear that Iran will be forced to vacate the role of Israel's great enemy," Golani wrote .

The Turkish Front

Golani points to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as having led an escalating path against Israel since the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident. Since the outbreak of the "Iron Swords" war in Gaza, Erdogan has declared a sweeping economic embargo and later issued threats of military intervention, including suggestions of invading Israel .

Tensions between Israel and Turkey have deepened dramatically in recent weeks, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accusing Erdogan of "massacring his own Kurdish citizens" and "accommodating Iran's terror regime and its proxies" .

The Pakistani Factor

On the Pakistani side, Golani notes that the two countries have never established diplomatic relations, and Islamabad has consistently sided with Israel's enemies in international forums .

The analysis points to recent sharp rhetoric from Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, who called Israel "a curse on humanity" in a now-deleted post on X. Asif also wished "those who created this cancerous state on Palestinian soil to get rid of the Jews of Europe to burn in hell" .

Israel's Dilemma

Golani warns that the choice between Turkey and Pakistan as the next adversary "is not in our hands, and both options are almost equally bad." He emphasizes that Israel's primary strategic lever remains its relationship with the United States, which must be "guarded with all our might" .

"Israel must prepare for a scenario in which one of these two countries confronts it immediately after the fighting against Iran subsides," he concludes .

The analysis comes as Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have emerged as a new regional power bloc, coordinating diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict and shape a post-war order in the Middle East . Earlier this month, Pakistan brokered a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran and hosted direct talks between the two sides in Islamabad .