IEA Warns Renewed US-Iran Tensions Could Shatter Forecasts of Global Oil Surplus

IEA warns renewed USIran tensions could derail its forecast for a major global oil surplus next year Oil supply rebounded by 4.1 million bpd in June after the Strait of Hormuz reopened, but remained 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels, IEA says The agency says it expects the market to shift from an 860,000 bpd deficit this year to a 4.62 million bpd surplus next year, if Hormuz traffic and energy exports normalize News Analysis & Summary The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a stark warning that escalating tensions between the United States and Iran could upend its previous forecast of a major global oil surplus next year. According to the IEA's latest report, oil supply rebounded by 4.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in June after the Strait of Hormuz reopened, yet it still remains 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels. The agency had initially projected a market shift from an 860,000 bpd deficit this year to a massive 4.62 million bpd surplus in 2025, but only if Hormuz traffic and energy exports normalize. In my opinion, this forecast is highly fragile. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil transit, and any renewed conflict could instantly reverse the supply gains. The IEA's surplus prediction relies on geopolitical stability that seems increasingly unlikely. Traders and policymakers should brace for heightened volatility rather than complacency. Source: @AlArabiya_Eng on X/TwitterPublic Engagement Views: 2,147 Likes: 7 Shares: 2 Published: July 10, 2026, 9:10 am