Dr. Israr Ahmed's 30-Year-Old Prophecy on Smaller Provinces Resurfaces as Debate Reignites in Pakistan

ISLAMABAD - A video clip of renowned Islamic scholar Dr. Israr Ahmed from nearly three decades ago has resurfaced and gone viral on social media, reigniting a fierce national debate on whether Pakistan's current four-province structure is adequate for a nation of over 240 million people.

In the clip, Dr. Israr Ahmed argues that Pakistan's administrative problems cannot be solved without creating smaller provinces. He proposed dividing the country into approximately 14 to 15 provinces, with populations of around one crore each, suggesting Punjab be split into five, Sindh into three, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan into two each .

The video has resurfaced at a time when the issue of new provinces is once again at the forefront of political discourse, with senior government ministers openly advocating for an administrative "reset" .

The Renewed Debate

The current debate was triggered in late July when Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi called for the creation of additional administrative units, arguing that Pakistan's existing governance structure had "collapsed" and failed to adequately respond to the country's administrative and development needs .

Planning and Development Minister Ahsan Iqbal subsequently proposed dividing Pakistan's four provinces into three parts each, resulting in a total of 15 provinces, or alternatively, establishing around 160 fully empowered district governments . He stressed that political consensus was essential for such a major restructuring .

The military's media wing has also weighed in, with the DG ISPR pointing to Pakistan's dramatic population growth and calling for an "administrative reset" through constitutional methods .

The Case for Smaller Provinces

Proponents of new provinces argue that the existing units are too large to manage effectively, creating an administrative distance between citizens and decision-makers . They contend that smaller units would bring the seat of power closer to the people, allowing for more tailored policies in health, education, policing, and disaster management .

A key argument is the imbalance of power, with Punjab alone accounting for more than half the country's population, making Pakistan virtually a "one-province country" . Smaller provinces, advocates say, would reduce Punjab's dominance and give under-represented areas a stronger voice in provincial assemblies, the Senate, and resource distribution .

Dr. Israr Ahmed's analysis, as reflected in his speeches, focused on the administrative and governance failures stemming from this imbalance. He viewed the existing provincial structure as a British colonial legacy that lacked inherent sanctity and argued that recognizing linguistic and ethnic diversity would not necessarily lead to national disintegration .

A Long History of Stalled Demands

The demand for new provinces is not new. Prominent existing demands include:

• South Punjab: The demand for a separate South Punjab province has been on the political agenda for years, with the National Assembly passing a resolution in 2012 .

• Hazara: The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly passed a resolution in favor of a separate Hazara province in 2014 .

• Bahawalpur: There have been persistent calls for the restoration of Bahawalpur province .

However, no new full province has been created since 1970 .

The Opposition and Challenges

The debate has encountered its strongest resistance in Sindh, where the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and other nationalist parties have opposed any move to divide the province. The Sindh Assembly unanimously passed a resolution on September 3 rejecting any proposal to alter its territorial boundaries, declaring that "Sindh is one and shall remain one" .

Critics also point to the heavy fiscal and administrative burden of creating new provinces. Each new province would require a governor, chief minister, cabinet, assembly, high court, and secretariat, expanding the political class and locking in higher recurring expenditure at a time when Pakistan already faces significant economic challenges .

Constitutionally, the creation of new provinces requires a two-thirds majority in both houses of Parliament and the consent of the affected provincial assembly under Article 239(4)-an exacting requirement in a polarized political climate .

What Comes Next

Parliamentary Affairs Minister Tariq Fazal Chaudhry has announced that the debate on creating new provinces will formally be taken up by the National Assembly and Senate in their October sessions, stressing that Parliament is the appropriate forum for deliberating the politically sensitive issue .

As the nation grapples with the question of whether smaller provinces are the answer to its governance woes, the resurfacing of Dr. Israr Ahmed's words serves as a reminder that this is a debate that has been decades in the making-and one that remains as unresolved as ever.