Birthing pains, again

FROM collapse to rebirth, phoenix-like. If the discussions and chatter are to be believed, the collapsed system is gearing up to save the country and its people by ‘devolution’. If, in the process, the system saves itself, it would presumably just be a bonus. In reality, however, this may just be the ‘real’ reason.

After all, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi’s confession about a system that had collapsed was accompanied by a warning about the ‘cockroaches’ getting together and overturning it all. And if the solution is to introduce devolution, it stands to reason it is about preserving the system as much as it is about delivering to the people.

It seems many of those who are convinced of the need for this self-preservation have kick-started a debate about local government or new provinces. From discussions on media, seminars and ‘news’ via sources, there is only one issue on the political horizon. And it explains how to get ‘delivery’ to the people’s doorstep. The assumption is that once this is done, terrorism, the economy, legitimacy, all will be fixed miraculously.

Over the previous couple of weeks, podcasts and talk shows have even shared some details on the possible divisions from a ‘presentation’ prepared by the powers that be. Similarly, cabinet members also jumped into the fray to support the proposal, while others simply expressed their ignorance.

Revamping the system would take far more time than those in a hurry are willing to spare.

A talk show on Geo during the weekend went further and reported a conversation with someone powerful who made it clear that devolution was now inevitable. Since then, the MQM has also announced a grand national dialogue on the matter.

Intriguingly (or should one say predictably), the reaction of the party leadership is less clear at the moment.

It is no secret that the PPP, in principal, is opposed to any move that might divide Sindh. However, this opposition has been voiced only by the second tier of the party leadership. The president, Asif Ali Zardari, and his son, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, have remained quiet, leaving everyone a little unclear on how the party is going to react — by a silent, indirect protest (such as the one that took place on the canal issue) or more directly.

The PML-N, on the other hand, is a house divided. A few ministers of Shehbaz Sharif’s cabinet have endorsed the idea of a collapse as well as new provinces. These include Aleem Khan as well as Raza Hayat Hiraj. But none of them have been told off by the prime minister who appears oblivious to the debate, as does his brother. The party meetings, which are being held frequently, simply discuss Kashmir and not the system or the indictment of their governance by Naqvi.

This has been confirmed this past weekend by Rana Sanaullah, who said in an interview that the party has not been told about the need for new provinces or devolution by the powers that be. Regardless, the party’s silence on the matter is being interpreted as discomfort — one which it is not willing to voice. There is also the PTI but it can barely get its act together on any issue, let alone such a critical one.

But one reason for the parties’ silence could also be the lack of clarity on what exactly is being proposed. Will there be administrative units (whatever that means), new provinces or empowered local governments? Nothing is clear. Will it mean new assemblies and chief ministers or simply elections at the third tier for mayors? Will it mean multiple assemblies or just multiple local governments? Nothing is clear, perhaps because nothing is finalised till now, other than the idea of devolution. In fact, this is plausible because the Pakistani ruling elite isn’t really known for its focus on details.

If this is the case, and it can be assumed that the final shape of the ‘new system’ will evolve after consultations and input from the parties in power (at least), then chances are that we would end up with local governments. And not new provinces because the parties will be more amenable to the former.

However, will the establishment be satisfied? For, it will leave many powers still with the provinces. For instance, if the idea is to protest the funding for local governments, what will ensure that the provinces will release the amounts agreed upon? Who will hold them accountable? Islamabad? But the centre is already weak and impotent, we keep being told.

There are logistical issues also. New provinces do not just mean new assemblies, offices and secretariats but also a reconfiguration of the Senate. After all, the Senate is based on federal representation where all provinces get equal representation. Hence, new provinces would mean considerable changes to the Upper House as well. In other words, all this will be a long, tortuous process, which might take more time than an establishment in a hurry is willing to spare.

Combine this with the political fallout which is hard to avoid. As mentioned earlier, the move will bring a reaction from Sindh, if not others. Similarly, there is little doubt that the political parties, even if they are forced to accept such a move, will continue to try and stymie it whichever way they can. Even Musharraf did not succeed with his local government system; once he held the elections to the National Assembly, the local government system began to be rolled back.

And even if the current establishment is less accommodating than Musharraf, it still needs to operate in a political environment; hence, it will have to make a decision to either throw all the political parties out and implement a new system or settle for a compromise. In either case, there will be delays and hindrances. What this means is that the elite infighting, which has and keeps Pakistan unstable, will continue. If both sides to the conflict are trying to outwit each other, the people of the country and their welfare will have to wait.

The writer is a journalist.

Published in Dawn, August 18th, 2026