Back to war

THE tentative ceasefire has effectively collapsed even before the US and Iran could begin technical-level talks. Renewed American strikes and Iranian retaliation now threaten the interim deal barely a month after it was signed. The two countries are sliding back towards war: Donald Trump has announced the resumption of the blockade, while Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. The US president has also notified Congress that the conflict with Iran is on.

Trump’s escalatory rhetoric — threatening to seize control of the strategic waterway and charge other countries for guarding it — may be dismissed as one of his usual bombastic flourishes, yet it has added to the tension. America’s escalation, coming a day after the delayed funeral of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the war on Feb 28, has stoked public anger in Iran. Many are calling for revenge.

Although a return to full-fledged war may not be imminent, the latest developments have made it far harder to reach a negotiated peace deal. The situation is half-war, half-peace, keeping the world on edge. The latest hostilities were apparently triggered by the strikes of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard on two tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz for failing to follow instructions.

There may be an element of truth to the argument that Iran, by targeting Qatari and Saudi tankers, has overplayed its leverage, giving Trump an opportunity to hit back. But it is also a fact that Iran’s action was provoked by the US attempt to guide commercial ships via the Omani route. Iran insists that its own waters offer the only viable route through the Strait of Hormuz for commercial vessels. For Iran, control of the strategic strait has become a key source of leverage; one Iranian official is quoted as saying it is more important than “dozens of atomic bombs”.

The latest events will make it far harder for Iran and the US to reach a negotiated peace deal.

Indeed, the Iranian action could have been avoided, but the US response was extraordinarily severe. The US strikes have mainly targeted civilian infrastructure, and Trump has rescinded the two-month sanction relief on Iranian oil exports.

The move may severely damage an already collapsing Iranian economy, yet there is no sign of Iran capitulating. Its retaliatory strikes on US bases in surrounding Gulf countries demonstrate Tehran’s continued military capacity to hit back. Taken together, the hostilities have pushed the situation back to where it stood before the ceasefire and temporary peace deal — in fact, it has grown even worse.

Iran’s retaliatory strikes have also strained its relations with the Gulf countries, which had appeared to ease after the ceasefire. The closure of Hormuz may not go down well with other countries that had stayed out of the US aggression. The spike in international oil prices could worsen an already recessionary situation.

Most alarming is the fact that the conflict could expand across the region and beyond. Interestingly, Iran’s nuclear issue, which the US described as the main reason for going to war, has receded into the background, while Hormuz, which was not an issue at all when the war started, has become the major point of contention.

Trump’s latest move — seeking control of the waterway and charging commercial vehicles 20pc on cargo value for protection services — has added a more explosive dimension. “I want to be reimbursed because we’re protecting a very rich portion of the world, we’re spending money, and … we are going to be reimbursed for protection,” Trump said. His words mark a dramatic shift in US policy and violate global norms of freedom of navigation. Any such move would heighten tension and cause further economic disruption in the region and beyond.

The contest has now turned into a battle for Hormuz. America and other countries had opposed Iran’s control of the strait and suggestion to charge a toll. Trump’s latest ambition to control Hormuz and collect service charges from oil-rich states amounts to an expansion of the military conflict. Most analysts, however, point out that many of his threats have never materialised.

America went to war by choice, albeit under pressure from Israel. It is now getting more and more entangled in a situation from which it will find it hard to extricate itself. Trump, with his country’s massive military power, may be able to destroy Iran completely, but that may not bring the war to an end.

The collapse of the ceasefire, the resumption of American military strikes and the blockade of Iran have made it difficult to bring the negotiation process based on the 14-point MoU back on track, though neither side has rejected talks. The situation has made the task of Pakistan and other mediating countries very hard. One wonders whether the mediators can play any meaningful role at all now.

Each side wants a peace deal on its own terms. One can understand Iran’s position as the party aggressed against and defending its sovereignty. But Trump’s whimsical and imperialistic designs have pushed the region into its worst crisis in recent history, with global implications. Meanwhile, Israel, which has opposed the interim peace agreement, now sees a fresh opportunity to restart the war. Its Defence Minister Israel Katz said last week that his country was prepared to resume its military campaign against Iran if needed, vowing to do so “with even greater force”. Israel has already extended its war deep into Lebanon, occupying a large part of the country despite the US-brokered ceasefire. A renewed Israeli attack on Iran would turn into a wider conflagration — which is what the Zionist state wants. Trump’s latest escalation fits in with Israel’s strategy to destroy Iran, thereby eliminating any resistance to its expansionist designs.

A renewed US-Israel war on Iran is likely to place Pakistan, which mediated the ceasefire and secured the MoU, in a precarious diplomatic situation. It remains to be seen how our leadership, which has so far been basking in the international limelight, will steer the country through such a critical situation.

The writer is an author and journalist.

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X: @hidhussain

Published in Dawn, July 15th, 2026