Trump’s no-win war

AMERICA’S self-styled ‘peace president’ has unleashed a brutal war against a country that poses no direct threat to his own. The conflict marks Donald Trump’s second military venture in less than six months, cementing his place among America’s war presidents. The joint US-Israel aggression against Iran has come as no surprise. For weeks, Washington had been deploying massive naval fleets to the region even as it publicly engaged Tehran in nuclear negotiations. It marked the largest US military build-up in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

It was becoming increasingly evident that Trump was not genuinely pursuing a deal; the talks appeared to serve merely as a cover for military preparations. The offensive was initiated despite reports of a breakthrough in ongoing negotiations. Trump’s decision to go to war and abandon diplomatic negotiations was reportedly driven by persistent pressure from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as by what Trump saw as his success in Venezuela.

According to media reports, the US and Israel had agreed to a war plan in December last year, which would target not only military installations but also senior Iranian leaders.

The US-Israel assassination of Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — the head of a sovereign state — along with members of his family, underscores the hubris and brazenness of the rogue leader at the helm of the world’s most powerful nation. The targeted attacks, according to Israel, killed more than 40 senior Iranian officials, including the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, the defence minister and the chief of staff of the armed forces. There are also reports of a large number of civilian victims, including 165 schoolgirls and staff, who were killed at a primary school by the strikes. Such actions are nothing short of a war crime.

Meanwhile, Trump has continued to shift the stated objectives of his military campaign. He is now openly seeking regime change in Iran. Initially, he predicted a swift end to the war. He now concedes that the conflict could drag on much longer. The massive air strikes have so far failed to eliminate Iran’s missile capability, which continues to threaten targets deep inside Israel as well as US military bases across the Middle East.

Iranian missiles have reportedly broken through Israel’s formidable air defence system, striking sensitive security installations. There have also been missile attacks targeting a US aircraft carrier, killing and wounding American troops. Iran has raised the stakes by launching missiles and drones strikes targeting American military bases in Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. The US embassy in Riyadh has also been hit by an Iranian drone strike.

Tehran has declared these facilities legitimate targets in response to American aggression. The situation has become extremely serious with some strikes hitting civilian installations, intensifying the conflict and potentially expanding it to the entire region. Meanwhile, Israel has extended the fighting to Lebanon, targeting the pro-Iran Hezbollah.

As the conflict widens and sucks in other countries, Trump has not ruled out the possibility of deploying ground troops. Any such US military misadventure would further inflame the situation. The US attack on Iran and the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was revered as a spiritual leader by millions of Shias across the world, has triggered widespread anti-US protests in many countries, threatening the stability of America’s regional allies. Pakistan, Iraq and Bahrain, which have large Shia populations, have witnessed most of these violent protests. In fact, a wider section of the population has joined the protests, cutting across sectarian lines.

A prolonged American war with boots on the ground would further destabilise an already volatile regional situation. Despite its immense military power, the US cannot assume victory; Trump seems to have forgotten the lessons of America’s two-decade war in Afghanistan and the 2003 invasion of Iraq. His warmongering has plunged the world into a deeper economic and geopolitical crisis.

As the war intensifies, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies pass — has nearly come to a standstill following Iran’s threat to block the waterway. Several of the world’s largest container shipping lines have suspended services, severely disrupting the global energy supply chain and triggering a sharp rise in oil and gas prices. The closure of regional airspace has not only disrupted travel but has also dealt a significant blow to the broader global economy. With no early end of the war in sight there is growing fear of a global economic recession.

The world is divided over the latest US military action. While China and Russia have stron­gly condemned the sweeping US-Israel military action against Iran and called for an immediate halt to hostilities, Western countries have refrained from directly condemning America’s illegal war against a sovereign state — a stance that, to many, exposes their hypocrisy.

Pakistan, which shares a long border with Iran, will be directly affected by an American war in its neighbourhood. Violent anti-American protests broke out in several cities following the assassination of Khamenei. With its close ties to the Trump administration and Saudi Arabia, the current dispensation finds itself in a tight corner. The killing of protesters in Karachi, reportedly by US Marines, Islamabad and Skardu, has inflamed anti-government sentiment. Many have begun questioning Pakistan’s decision to join Trump’s controversial ‘Board of Peace’. The US, in coordination with Israel, launched the attack on Iran soon after the BoP’s first meeting in Washington, which Israel also attended. All this has placed the military-backed government in an increasingly precarious position.

It will be hard for the US to extricate itself from a no-win war. Trump’s illegal war will certainly change the political map of Iran and the Middle East but not in the way he wants. The region will become far more chaotic, with consequences for the entire world.

The writer is an author and journalist.

zhussain100@yahoo.com

X: @hidhussain

Published in Dawn, March 4th, 2026